The global economy will move slowly in 2026. The progressive growth of the last two years will continue, but without any acceleration, as if the global engine still needs a few more laps after the shocks caused by international tensions
It’s no coincidence that advanced countries will be the ones to evolve slowly, while emerging economies will be more vibrant, albeit with less momentum than in the past. The economic climate, which will tend to be more fearful than expansionary, will also depend on ongoing trade and geopolitical tensions, inflation that hasn’t yet been fully tamed, and fiscal policies that in many countries will continue to face high debt. Despite this, the outlook is far from bleak. A world that grows slowly is also a more predictable world, where businesses and countries can move smoothly.
And precisely this stability could offer attractive opportunities for those who invest in sectors destined for progressive expansion, such as industry and infrastructure.
PNRR and exports: the driving force
For its part, the Italian economy will inevitably align itself with the trends of advanced countries, progressing slowly. The greatest boost will come from investments linked to the National Recovery and Resilience Plan (NRRP) and exports, while domestic consumption is expected to remain low due to the loss of purchasing power in average wages.
In practice, 2026 will therefore be a year of transition, with the country attempting to relaunch its economy thanks to political stability and a modest budget, while awaiting understanding of how global markets will evolve in the second half of the year. Climate change will also significantly influence these markets, resulting in increasingly violent and sudden events that impact emergency costs and production cycles.
The variable of climate change
If current trends continue, 2026 could be one of the hottest years on record, generating both pressure on water and agricultural resources and placing heavy economic demands on the resilience of social and economic infrastructure. The most recent analyses estimate the risk that the damage caused by climate change could have medium- and long-term repercussions, highlighting how global economic growth could be much lower than potential or even contract under certain development scenarios without adaptation and mitigation policies.
Title: National and Global Economic Forecast for 2026
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