According to the renowned British biologist Charles Darwin, the species that survives change is not the strongest, but the one most capable of adapting to new conditions.
Although Darwinian evolutionary theory was developed to explain natural selection processes in plants and animals, its abstract extension can today serve as a common thread for certain trends emerging at the intersection of ongoing climate change and agriculture—Italian agriculture in particular
Andrea Castelli
Just a few weeks ago, news broke that Chiquita—the Swiss-American multinational known worldwide for its “blue-sticker” bananas—has begun cultivating its products in Italy for the first time, specifically in Sicily. There, the tropicalization of the climate has opened the door to plantations of other exotic fruits as well, such as avocados and mangoes.
This evolutionary opportunity could integrate effectively into Sicily’s agricultural landscape, especially if banana cultivation proves capable of replacing, in terms of profitability, a share of the vineyards that are increasingly fragile and sensitive to climate change.
A replacement that appears unavoidable, considering a recent study by the European Environment Agency (EEA) indicating that, over the next decade, 56 percent of the world’s current vineyard areas will become unsuitable due to rising average temperatures and decreasing rainfall.
According to the same agency, this trend will also affect land values, with Mediterranean countries expected to see farmland prices fall by 60 to 90 percent, while land values in Central and Northern Europe could rise by 40 to 60 percent. As vegetable, fruit, and grain crops migrate to higher latitudes in search of less extreme climates, productive reconversion becomes the only viable survival strategy for Mediterranean agriculture.
This evolution within Italy’s primary sector is already evident beyond Sicily. In Puglia, for instance, durum wheat prices have dropped by 44 percent over the last three years, falling from 530 euros per quintal in 2022 to today’s 280 euros. Yields tell a similar story, now down to 20–25 tonnes per hectare. Meanwhile, worldwide wheat supply has increased and is expected to continue rising, according to the International Grain Council.
There is little point in seeking culprits other than rising average temperatures and the dramatic decline in rainfall—two factors expected to worsen in the coming years, prompting Puglian farmers to explore new business models.
Although alternatives with equal economic weight are still hard to identify, cotton cultivation has reappeared in some areas—abandoned 70 years ago but now capable of supporting farms that would otherwise close the season at a loss with durum wheat alone. Cotton may not be the ultimate salvation of Puglian agriculture, just as bananas may never become the core business of Sicily’s primary sector.
Nonetheless, their present relevance lies in the evolutionary process that Mediterranean agriculture must necessarily confront. And within the space between interpreting change and being overwhelmed by it lies the entire difference between professional success and failure.
Title: Agricultural evolution and climate: darwinian lessons
Author: Andrea Castelli
Translation with ChatGPT
